DOI : 10.1007/s11069-024-06624-y
Natural Hazards. Volume 120, Issue 12, Pages 10727 – 10752, September 2024.
Over the past two decades, the Casablanca-Mohammedia coastal corridor (Morocco) has experienced frequent flooding, causing significant damage to coastal settlements due to overtopping and overflow processes. In this context, a comprehensive and realistic assessment of flood risk is essential.
As the lead author of this article, Dr. Taoufiq Chtioui, an expert in oceanography and coastal risk management at Ibn Tofail University, KĂ©nitra (Morocco), conducted a study assessing coastal flood risks in the Casablanca-Mohammedia area. The research evaluates marine water level variations by analyzing factors such as astronomical tides, storm surges, wave run-up, and sea level rise, comparing them with coastal topography to map flood-prone areas for both present and future projections (2100).
Methodology and Data Sources
The analysis relies on numerical and empirical modeling, utilizing topobathymetric data, tide gauge records, wind measurements, and wave and atmospheric pressure reanalysis. Statistical approaches such as linear regression and the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) model were applied to identify trends and distributions. The methodology was validated by comparing estimated total water levels with field observations from past flood events.
Key Findings
- Flooding mainly occurs during high tides, with wave run-up being the largest contributor (45–60% in protected areas, ~35% in natural zones).
- Currently, ~23.5 km² of the Casablanca-Mohammedia coastline is flood-prone, including 13.9 km² of urban land. This could increase by 10.87% to 20.9% by 2100.
- The most vulnerable areas include Mohammedia, Ain Sbâa, Merzeg, Tamaris beaches, Ain Diab, and the Hassan II Mosque promenades.
Proposed Solutions
This study recommends:
- Strengthening coastal defenses through engineered structures and natural solutions.
- Improving urban planning regulations to prevent development in high-risk areas.
- Enhancing early warning systems for marine storm flooding.
- Integrating nature-based solutions, such as dune restoration and wetland conservation, to act as natural barriers.
Scientific Impact
Through this research published in high-impact journal, Dr. Chtioui provides valuable insights for policymakers, urban developers, and environmental agencies working towards a more resilient Moroccan coastline in the face of climate change.
Dr. Taoufiq Chtioui has also contributed to coastal research through his publication “Storm’s Influence on Long-Term Shoreline Evolution” in Regional Studies in Marine Science journal. This study examines how storms impact the Moroccan coastline over time, analyzing shoreline regression, sediment transport, and erosion patterns. By integrating remote sensing, and statistical analysis, the research provides insights into coastal vulnerability and resilience, helping to improve long-term coastal management strategies in Morocco.
For further information, please contact Dr. Taoufiq Chtioui at Ibn Tofail University, KĂ©nitra, Morocco. (Email: taoufiq.chtioui@uit.ac.ma / taoufiq.chtioui14@gmail.com)
